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Europa League

Red Bull Salzburg
Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 16, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Roma logo

Salzburg
1 - 0
Roma

Capaldo (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Red Bull Salzburg and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

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Last Game: Salzburg 3-0 Karlsruher
Friday, January 20 at 3pm in Club Friendlies 1
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Roma

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lecce 1-1 Roma
Saturday, February 11 at 5pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Roma had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Red Bull Salzburg would win this match.

Result
Red Bull SalzburgDrawRoma
45.79% (0.214 0.21)24.28% (-0.044 -0.04)29.93% (-0.163 -0.16)
Both teams to score 58.05% (0.058 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.68% (0.123 0.12)44.32% (-0.117 -0.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.31% (0.119 0.12)66.7% (-0.113 -0.11)
Red Bull Salzburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.5% (0.14 0.14)19.5% (-0.134 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.62% (0.227 0.23)51.38% (-0.221 -0.22)
Roma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.12% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)27.88% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.51% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)63.49% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Red Bull Salzburg 45.79%
    Roma 29.93%
    Draw 24.28%
Red Bull SalzburgDrawRoma
2-1 @ 9.28% (0.019 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.89% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.27% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.06% (0.032 0.03)
3-0 @ 3.96% (0.031 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.23% (0.016 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.07% (0.021 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.62% (0.02 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.32% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 45.79%
1-1 @ 11.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.93% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 5.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.28%
1-2 @ 7.25% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-1 @ 6.95% (-0.045 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.035 -0.04)
1-3 @ 3.09% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.52% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 1.89% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.007 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 29.93%

How you voted: Salzburg vs Roma

Red Bull Salzburg
36.9%
Draw
19.5%
Roma
43.7%
293