Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.75%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.