Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 36.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.09%) and 0-2 (5.62%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.