Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 5

Sep 3, 2022 at 5pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
3 - 2
Inter Milan

Leao (28', 60'), Giroud (54')
Hernandez (9'), Giroud (32'), De Ketelaere (51'), Tonali (77'), Leao (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Brozovic (21'), Dzeko (67')
Dumfries (9'), Brozovic (39'), Inzaghi (71')

Reaction

AC Milan's Rafael Leao celebrates scoring their third goal on September 3, 2022

AC Milan beat Inter Milan in derby to move top of Serie A

Rafael Leao marks his 100th Serie A appearance with two goals and an assist to fire AC Milan top of the table with a 3-2 derby victory over bitter rivals Inter Milan.

Sep 3, 17:59

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

Last Six:

Last Game: Sassuolo 0-0 AC Milan
Tuesday, August 30 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Juventus	4	5	8
6	AC Milan	4	4	8
7	Lazio	4	3	8

Inter Milan

Last Six:

Last Game: Inter Milan 3-1 Cremonese
Tuesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	Roma	4	5	10
3	Inter Milan	4	4	9
4	Napoli	4	7	8

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 32.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
32.93% ( -0.74)	25.5% ( -0.99)	41.56% ( 1.73)

Both teams to score 55.28% (

3.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.45% (

4.01)

48.54% (

-4.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.33% (

3.55)

70.66% (

-3.55)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.98% (

1.5)

28.01% (

-1.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.34% (

1.87)

63.66% (

-1.87)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.8% (

2.69)

23.2% (

-2.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.9% (

3.78)

57.09% (

-3.79)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 32.93%

Inter Milan 41.56%

Draw 25.5%

AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
1-0 @ 8.27% ( -1.06) 2-1 @ 7.69% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.43) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.27) 3-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.8% Total : 32.93%	1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.52) 0-0 @ 6.5% ( -1.14) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.42) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.21) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.5%	0-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.83) 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0.31) 0-2 @ 6.94% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.46) 0-3 @ 3.38% ( 0.24) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.4) 1-4 @ 1.57% ( 0.27) 0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.17) 2-4 @ 1% ( 0.21) Other @ 2.09% Total : 41.56%