Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.