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Europa League | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
2 - 2
Sturm Graz

Immobile (45' pen.), Pedro (71')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Boving (56', 83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Lazio and Sturm Graz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Fiorentina 0-4 Lazio
Monday, October 10 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Sturm Graz 0-0 Lazio
Thursday, October 6 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.75%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 25.62%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.24%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
LazioDrawSturm Graz
47.75% (0.056999999999995 0.06)26.63% (-0.096 -0.1)25.62% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 47.61% (0.306 0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.49% (0.379 0.38)56.51% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.5% (0.305 0.31)77.5% (-0.29899999999999 -0.3)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.31% (0.19200000000001 0.19)23.7% (-0.186 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.18% (0.272 0.27)57.82% (-0.266 -0.27)
Sturm Graz Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.39% (0.248 0.25)37.61% (-0.24299999999999 -0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.61% (0.245 0.25)74.39% (-0.239 -0.24)
Score Analysis
    Lazio 47.75%
    Sturm Graz 25.62%
    Draw 26.63%
LazioDrawSturm Graz
1-0 @ 12.83% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-0 @ 9.24% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.03% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.43% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.34% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.12% (0.033 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.6% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.56% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 47.75%
1-1 @ 12.54% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
0-0 @ 8.91% (-0.129 -0.13)
2-2 @ 4.42% (0.044 0.04)
Other @ 0.76%
Total : 26.63%
0-1 @ 8.72% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
1-2 @ 6.14% (0.027 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.26% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-3 @ 2% (0.022 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.44% (0.024 0.02)
0-3 @ 1.39% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 25.62%

How you voted: Lazio vs Sturm Graz

Lazio
93.8%
Draw
5.4%
Sturm Graz
0.9%
112
Head to Head
Oct 6, 2022 5.45pm
Group F
Sturm Graz
0-0
Lazio

Ilzer (23')