Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 39.83%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 35.14% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.32%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.