Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sturm Graz win with a probability of 51.35%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 24.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sturm Graz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.