Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 38.58%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.