We said: Lazio 2-0 Spezia
Both sides have improved at the back this season, as Lazio have conceded five league goals in 2022-23 compared to 12 at this point last year; Spezia have leaked 11 compared to 19.
The hosts are a formidable prospect on home soil, though, and even if Immobile sits out, chief creator Sergej Milinkovic-Savic can cause havoc in the visitors' defence.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 70.88%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 11.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 1-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
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