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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 27, 2023 at 7.30pm UK
INEA stadion

Lech Poznan
3 - 1
Kauno Zalgiris

Hotic (10'), Milic (41'), Murawski (45+2')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Fase (57')
Girdvainis (82'), Dolznikov (90+6')
Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Lech Poznan and Kauno Zalgiris.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

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Last Game: Fiorentina 2-3 Lech Poznan
Thursday, April 20 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
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Kauno Zalgiris

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Last Game: Kauno Zalgiris 0-0 Ruzomberok
Thursday, July 14 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 54.82%. A win for Kauno Zalgiris had a probability of 22.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Kauno Zalgiris win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.

Result
Lech PoznanDrawKauno Zalgiris
54.82% (0.058 0.06)22.43% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)22.75% (-0.038 -0.04)
Both teams to score 57.61% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.17% (0.030999999999999 0.03)41.83% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.76% (0.030000000000001 0.03)64.24% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.81% (0.033000000000001 0.03)15.19% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.19% (0.056000000000004 0.06)43.81% (-0.052 -0.05)
Kauno Zalgiris Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.93% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)32.07% (0.020000000000003 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.45% (-0.02 -0.02)68.55% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Lech Poznan 54.82%
    Kauno Zalgiris 22.75%
    Draw 22.43%
Lech PoznanDrawKauno Zalgiris
2-1 @ 9.84% (0.0019999999999989 0)
1-0 @ 9.18% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 8.65% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.18% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.44% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.51% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 2.91% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.56% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.66% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.1% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 0.97% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 54.82%
1-1 @ 10.44%
2-2 @ 5.59% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 4.87% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.33%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 22.43%
1-2 @ 5.94% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.54% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.15% (-0.008 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.25% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.12% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 1.19% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 22.75%

How you voted: Lech Poznan vs Kauno Zalgiris

Lech Poznan
83.3%
Draw
16.7%
Kauno Zalgiris
0.0%
6