AZ Alkmaar
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NEC
Eredivisie | Gameweek 33
May 21, 2023 at 1.30pm UK
Goffertstadion
AZ Alkmaar

Nijmegen
0 - 3
AZ

FT(HT: 0-2)
Karlsson (28', 50'), Clasie (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions
Last Game: FC Twente 4-0 Nijmegen
Friday, May 12 at 7pm in Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Eredivisie
Last Game: AZ 0-1 West Ham
Thursday, May 18 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for NEC had a probability of 35.12% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-3 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.

Result
NECDrawAZ Alkmaar
35.12% (0.598 0.6)25.07% (0.164 0.16)39.8% (-0.77 -0.77)
Both teams to score 57.31% (-0.471 -0.47)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.84% (-0.657 -0.66)46.16% (0.649 0.65)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.54% (-0.625 -0.63)68.45% (0.616 0.62)
NEC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.45% (0.033000000000001 0.03)25.55% (-0.041 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.59% (0.049999999999997 0.05)60.41% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.97% (-0.672 -0.67)23.03% (0.664 0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.16% (-0.992 -0.99)56.84% (0.984 0.98)
Score Analysis
    NEC 35.12%
    AZ Alkmaar 39.8%
    Draw 25.06%
NECDrawAZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 8.04% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
1-0 @ 8.03% (0.228 0.23)
2-0 @ 5.48% (0.162 0.16)
3-1 @ 3.66% (0.042 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-0 @ 2.49% (0.077 0.08)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.015 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.92% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 35.12%
1-1 @ 11.78% (0.1 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.91% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-0 @ 5.88% (0.16 0.16)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.06%
1-2 @ 8.66% (-0.093 -0.09)
0-1 @ 8.64% (0.068 0.07)
0-2 @ 6.34% (-0.075 -0.08)
1-3 @ 4.24% (-0.131 -0.13)
0-3 @ 3.11% (-0.099 -0.1)
2-3 @ 2.89% (-0.086 -0.09)
1-4 @ 1.56% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-4 @ 1.14% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-4 @ 1.06% (-0.053 -0.05)
Other @ 2.18%
Total : 39.8%

How you voted: Nijmegen vs AZ

NEC
18.2%
Draw
0.0%
AZ Alkmaar
81.8%
11
Head to Head
Sep 1, 2022 7pm
gameweek 3
AZ
1-1
Nijmegen
Odgaard (57')
de Wit (31')
Marquez (54')
Mar 6, 2022 3.45pm
gameweek 23
Nijmegen
1-3
AZ
Guth (44')
Karlsson (8', 70'), Evjen (76')
Vindahl Jensen (42')
Nov 20, 2021 7pm
gameweek 11
AZ
1-1
Nijmegen
Aboukhlal (90+2')
Martins Indi (85')
Bruijn (9')
May 7, 2017 1.30pm
Nijmegen
2-1
AZ
Von Haacke (30'), Awoniyi (89')
Danjuma (63'), Awoniyi (89')
Jahanbakhsh (43')
Wuytens (50'), Jahanbakhsh (82')
Haps (60')
Aug 28, 2016 3.45pm
AZ
2-0
Nijmegen
Dos Santos (44'), Jahanbakhsh (73')
dos Santos (52')

von Haacke (33')
von Haacke (53')