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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse |
| 42.35% ( | 23.26% ( | 34.38% ( |
| Both teams to score 63.75% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.3% ( | 37.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.06% ( | 59.93% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.74% ( | 18.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.69% | 49.3% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.99% ( | 22.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.67% ( | 55.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 2-0 @ 5.81% ( 3-1 @ 4.99% ( 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 3-0 @ 3.29% ( 4-1 @ 2.12% 4-2 @ 1.6% 4-0 @ 1.4% Other @ 3.73% Total : 42.35% | 1-1 @ 10.34% 2-2 @ 6.66% ( 0-0 @ 4.02% ( 3-3 @ 1.9% ( Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 7.83% 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0-2 @ 4.6% 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.36% 0-3 @ 2.32% 1-4 @ 1.49% 2-4 @ 1.27% ( Other @ 3.47% Total : 34.38% |