Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 34.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.83%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.