Eredivisie | Gameweek 23

Feb 26, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

GelreDome, Arnhem

Vitesse
1 - 2
Ajax

van Ginkel (30')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Klaassen (32'), Alvarez (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Vitesse and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitesse

All competitions

Last Game: Volendam 2-0 Vitesse
Saturday, February 18 at 3.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Union Berlin 3-1 Ajax
Thursday, February 23 at 8pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.9%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 18.59%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.26%) and 0-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.46%), while for a Vitesse win it was 2-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Ajax in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ajax.

Result
Vitesse	Draw	Ajax
18.59% ( -0.07)	20.51% ( 0.08)	60.9% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 57.63% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.29% (

-0.52)

38.7% (

0.52)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.99% (

-0.55)

61.01% (

0.55)

Vitesse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.71% (

-0.39)

34.28% (

0.39)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.01% (

-0.42)

70.98% (

0.42)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.7% (

-0.16)

12.3% (

0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.92% (

-0.34)

38.08% (

0.34)

Score Analysis

Vitesse 18.59%

Ajax 60.9%

Draw 20.51%

Vitesse	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.51% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 2.42% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.9% Total : 18.59%	1-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.51%	1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 9.26% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 6.92% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 6.47% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 3.63% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.39% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.04) 1-5 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) 0-5 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.9% Total : 60.9%