Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.