Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.