Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.