Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 42.14%. A win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.