Championship

Championship | Gameweek 38

Jun 20, 2020 at 1pm UK

The Den

Millwall
2 - 3
Derby

Smith (15'), Mahoney (90+3')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Sibley (26', 71', 90')
Waghorn (38'), Sibley (89')

Reaction

Derby County's Louie Sibley celebrates scoring against Millwall on June 20, 2020

Phillip Cocu hails "complete" Louie Sibley for match-winning Millwall hat-trick

The 18-year-old cancelled out Matt Smith's opener before scoring twice more.

Jun 20, 16:14

The Match

Match Report

Matt Matthew Smith opened the scoring for the Lions but three goals from Louie Sibley turned the game on its head.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship game between Millwall and Derby County, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Millwall win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.

Result
Millwall	Draw	Derby County
41.97%	26.19%	31.84%

Both teams to score 52.65%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.22%

51.77%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.46%

73.54%

Millwall Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.57%

24.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.15%

58.85%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.67%

30.33%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.48%

66.51%

Score Analysis

Millwall 41.97%

Derby County 31.84%

Draw 26.18%

Millwall	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 10.44% 2-1 @ 8.78% 2-0 @ 7.36% 3-1 @ 4.13% 3-0 @ 3.46% 3-2 @ 2.46% 4-1 @ 1.45% 4-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.67% Total : 41.97%	1-1 @ 12.45% 0-0 @ 7.41% 2-2 @ 5.24% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.18%	0-1 @ 8.84% 1-2 @ 7.43% 0-2 @ 5.27% 1-3 @ 2.96% 0-3 @ 2.1% 2-3 @ 2.08% Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.84%