Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 59.76%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 15.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.84%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Argentina in this match.