Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crotone win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 32.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crotone win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Genoa win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crotone | Draw | Genoa |
| 41.4% | 26.06% | 32.54% |
| Both teams to score 53.31% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.96% | 51.04% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.1% | 72.9% |
| Crotone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.61% | 24.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.2% | 58.79% |
| Genoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.5% | 29.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.49% | 65.51% |
| Score Analysis |
| Crotone | Draw | Genoa |
| 1-0 @ 10.15% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 7.16% 3-1 @ 4.11% 3-0 @ 3.37% 3-2 @ 2.51% 4-1 @ 1.45% 4-0 @ 1.19% Other @ 2.71% Total : 41.4% | 1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 7.19% 2-2 @ 5.34% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.06% | 0-1 @ 8.78% 1-2 @ 7.56% 0-2 @ 5.36% 1-3 @ 3.08% 0-3 @ 2.18% 2-3 @ 2.17% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.46% Total : 32.54% |