Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.