| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Famalicao | 6 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Pacos de Ferreira | 5 | -9 | 0 |
| 18 | Maritimo | 5 | -12 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Boavista | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Chaves | 6 | -1 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 41.85% ( | 26.86% ( | 31.29% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.37% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.39% ( | 54.61% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.05% ( | 75.95% ( |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.24% ( | 25.76% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.3% ( | 60.7% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.85% ( | 32.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.36% ( | 68.64% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.23% ( 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 2-0 @ 7.62% ( 3-1 @ 3.91% ( 3-0 @ 3.45% ( 3-2 @ 2.22% ( 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 4-0 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.29% Total : 41.85% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( 0-0 @ 8.28% ( 2-2 @ 4.9% ( Other @ 0.93% Total : 26.85% | 0-1 @ 9.4% ( 1-2 @ 7.23% ( 0-2 @ 5.33% ( 1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0-3 @ 2.02% ( 2-3 @ 1.86% ( Other @ 2.72% Total : 31.29% |