Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 65.64%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Newcastle United had a probability of 14.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (10.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.18%) , while for a Newcastle United win it was 0-1 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.