EFL Cup
Mar 22, 2026 4.30pm
Wembley Stadium

Arsenal vs Manchester City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Arsenal

All competitions

Manchester City

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arsenal win with a probability of 42.9%. A win for Manchester City has a probability of 33.1% and a draw has a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (7.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.11%).

Result

Arsenal 42.9% (+2.00)
Draw 24.1% (-0.30)
Manchester City 33.1% (-1.61)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.4% (+0.80)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.44% (+0.88)
Under 1.5 19.56% (-0.88)
Over 2.5 58.1% (+1.21)
Under 2.5 41.9% (-1.21)
Over 3.5 35.7% (+1.21)
Under 3.5 64.3% (-1.21)
Over 4.5 20.98% (+0.97)
Under 4.5 79.02% (-0.97)

Arsenal Goals

Over 1.5 46% (+2.22)
Under 1.5 54% (-2.22)
Over 2.5 21.38% (+1.72)
Under 2.5 78.62% (-1.72)
Over 3.5 8.09% (+0.92)
Under 3.5 91.91% (-0.93)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5 69.53% (-0.96)
Under 0.5 30.47% (+0.95)
Over 1.5 37.75% (-0.83)
Under 1.5 62.25% (+0.83)
Over 2.5 15.58% (-0.46)
Under 2.5 84.42% (+0.47)
Over 3.5 5.24% (-0.18)
Under 3.5 94.76% (+0.19)

Score analysis

Arsenal 42.91%
Draw 24.11%
Manchester City 33.1%
Arsenal
2-1 @ 8.98% (+0.21)
1-0 @ 7.94% (-0.06)
2-0 @ 6.44% (+0.24)
3-1 @ 4.85% (+0.30)
3-0 @ 3.47% (+0.25)
3-2 @ 3.39% (+0.19)
Other @ 7.84% (+0.90)
Total : 42.91%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.11% (-0.20)
2-2 @ 6.27% (+0.07)
0-0 @ 4.9% (-0.26)
3-3 @ 1.58% (+0.08)
Other @ 0.25% (+0.02)
Total : 24.11%
Manchester City
1-2 @ 7.73% (-0.25)
0-1 @ 6.84% (-0.45)
0-2 @ 4.78% (-0.36)
1-3 @ 3.61% (-0.15)
2-3 @ 2.93%
0-3 @ 2.22% (-0.20)
Other @ 4.99% (-0.21)
Total : 33.1%

Head to Head

Premier League
Sep 21, 2025 4.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Premier League Gameweek 24
Feb 2, 2025 4.30pm
5
1
HT : 1 0
FT Emirates Stadium
  • Martin Odegaard 2' goal
  • Jurrien Maduro 25' yellowcard
  • Thomas Partey 56' goal
  • Myles Lewis-Skelly 62' goal
  • Martin Odegaard 71' yellowcard
  • Kai Havertz 76' goal
  • Ethan Nwaneri 90'+3' goal
  • goal Erling Haaland 55'
Premier League Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 4.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Erling Haaland 9' goal
  • Ederson 23' yellowcard
  • Ruben Dias 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Bernardo Silva 90'+1' yellowcard
  • John Stones 90'+8' goal
  • Pep Guardiola 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Riccardo Calafiori 22'
  • yellowcard Leandro Trossard 34'
  • goal Gabriel Magalhaes 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Thomas Partey 45'+7'
  • redcard Leandro Trossard 45'+8'
  • yellowcard Myles Lewis-Skelly 65'
  • yellowcard Declan Rice 83'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Jesus 90'+6'
Premier League Gameweek 30
Mar 31, 2024 4.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Etihad Stadium
  • yellowcard Gabriel Jesus 67'
  • yellowcard David Raya 79'
Premier League Gameweek 8
Oct 8, 2023 4.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Emirates Stadium
  • Jorginho 11' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Martinelli 86' goal
  • Gabriel Jesus 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bernardo Silva 23'
  • yellowcard Mateo Kovacic 29'
  • yellowcard Ederson 90'+3'
Community Shield
Aug 6, 2023 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Wembley Stadium
  • Thomas Partey 8' yellowcard
  • Kai Havertz 27' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Magalhaes 66' yellowcard
  • Leandro Trossard 90'+11' goal
  • yellowcard Julian Alvarez 31'
  • goal Cole Palmer 77'

Build-up

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