Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 67.22%. A draw had a probability of 19.37% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 13.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.31%) and 2-1 (10.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.14%) , while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.