Champions League
Real Madrid
Mar 11, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Man City

Real Madrid vs Manchester City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

Manchester City

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 45.81%. A win for Manchester City has a probability of 32.05% and a draw has a probability of 22.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (6.57%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Manchester City win is 1-2 (7.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.07%).

Result

Real Madrid 45.81% ▼ (-0.27)
Draw 22.14%
Manchester City 32.05% ▲ (+0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.17% ▲ (+0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.83% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 15.17% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 2.5 66.11% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 2.5 33.89% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 45.19% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 3.5 54.81% ▼ (-0.19)
Over 4.5 29.31% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 4.5 70.69% ▼ (-0.13)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 36.66%
Draw 37.66%
Manchester City 25.68%

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 54.18%
No Goal 3.56% ▼ (-0.05)
Manchester City 42.26% ▲ (+0.04)

Corners

Over 8 56.6% ▲ (+0.39)
Equal 8 10.86% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 8 32.54% ▼ (-0.32)
Over 9 45.62% ▲ (+0.41)
Equal 9 10.97% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 9 43.4% ▼ (-0.39)
Over 10.5 35.38% ▲ (+0.42)
Under 10.5 64.62% ▼ (-0.41)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 52.28% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 1.5 47.72% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 2.5 27.86% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 72.14% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 12.32% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 87.68% ▲ (+0.10)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5 68.78% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 0.5 31.22% ▼ (-0.27)
Over 1.5 40.73% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 1.5 59.27% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 2.5 19.01% ▲ (+0.23)
Under 2.5 80.99% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 7.58% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 92.42% ▼ (-0.13)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 45.8%
Draw 22.14%
Manchester City 32.04%
Real Madrid
2-1 @ 8.47% ▼ (-0.05)
1-0 @ 6.57% ▼ (-0.05)
2-0 @ 5.79% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 5.49% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 4.2% ▲ (+0.05)
3-0 @ 3.57% ▼ (-0.08)
Other @ 11.71% ▼ (-0.09)
Total : 45.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.07% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.62% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 3.56% ▼ (-0.05)
3-3 @ 2.28% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.61%
Total : 22.14%
Manchester City
1-2 @ 7.03% ▲ (+0.03)
0-1 @ 5.02%
0-2 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.04)
1-3 @ 3.77% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 3.54% ▲ (+0.05)
0-3 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 6.97% ▲ (+0.13)
Total : 32.04%

Head to Head

Champions League
Real Madrid
Dec 10, 2025 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT
Man City
  • Rodrygo 28' goal
  • Antonio Rudiger 43' yellowcard
  • Rodrygo 87' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Fernandez 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Phil Foden 11'
  • goal Nico O'Reilly 35'
  • goal Erling Haaland 43'
  • yellowcard Nico O'Reilly 76'
  • yellowcard Pep Guardiola 82'
  • yellowcard Pep Guardiola 82'
  • yellowcard Bernardo Silva 90'
Champions League
Real Madrid
Feb 19, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Man City
  • Kylian Mbappe 4' goal
  • Kylian Mbappe 33' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 38' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappe 61' goal
  • yellowcard Ilkay Gundogan 28'
  • yellowcard Nico Gonzalez 47'
  • goal Nico Gonzalez 90'+2'
Champions League
Man City
Feb 11, 2025 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 0
FT Etihad Stadium
Real Madrid
  • Erling Haaland 19' goal
  • Erling Haaland 80' goal
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 60'
  • goal Brahim Diaz 86'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 90'+2'
Champions League
Man City
Apr 17, 2024 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
ET Etihad Stadium
Real Madrid
  • Jack Grealish 59' yellowcard
  • Josko Gvardiol 61' yellowcard
  • Kevin De Bruyne 76' goal
  • Rodri 90' yellowcard
  • goal Rodrygo 12'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 38'
  • yellowcard Ferland Mendy 90'+4'
Champions League
Real Madrid
Apr 9, 2024 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Man City
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 1' yellowcard
  • Ruben Dias 12' goal
  • Rodrygo 14' goal
  • Federico Valverde 79' goal
  • Dani Carvajal 81' yellowcard
  • goal Bernardo Silva 2'
  • yellowcard Manuel Akanji 37'
  • goal Phil Foden 66'
  • goal Josko Gvardiol 71'
  • yellowcard Bernardo Silva 88'
Champions League
Man City
May 17, 2023 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT
Real Madrid
  • Bernardo Silva 23' goal
  • Bernardo Silva 37' goal
  • Manuel Akanji 76' goal
  • Julian Alvarez 90'+1' goal

Form Data

Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 0 - 1 Getafe
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Benfica
Osasuna 2 - 1 Real Madrid
Benfica 0 - 1 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad
Newcastle 1 - 3 Man City
Man City 2 - 2 Nott'm Forest
Leeds 0 - 1 Man City
Man City 2 - 1 Newcastle
Man City 2 - 0 Salford City
Man City 3 - 0 Fulham

Build-up

Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions