Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.16% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 21.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.97%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%) , while for a Osasuna win it was 2-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.