La Liga
Villarreal
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de la Cerámica
Real Madrid
  • Rafa Marin 24' yellowcard
  • Rafa Marín 24' yellowcard
  • Tani Oluwaseyi 70' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Pepe 70' yellowcard
  • Nicolas Pépé 70' yellowcard
  • Thomas Partey 77' yellowcard
  • Ayoze Perez 77' yellowcard
  • Ayoze Pérez 77' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 47'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 47'
  • yellowcard Gonzalo Garcia 74'
  • yellowcard Gonzalo García 74'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 80'
  • yellowcard Brahim Díaz 80'
  • yellowcard Kylian Mbappe 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Kylian Mbappé 90'+4'

Villarreal vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 8.00pm
Betis 2 - 0 Villarreal
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Georges Mikautadze

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 1.00pm
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Levante
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 46.88%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 31.52% and a draw had a probability of 21.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.06%) and 0-2 (6.23%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 2-1 (7.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result

Villarreal 31.52% ▼ (-0.13)
Draw 21.63% ▲ (+0.01)
Real Madrid 46.88% ▲ (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.6% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.16% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 1.5 16.84% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 2.5 63.44% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 2.5 36.56% ▲ (+0.53)
Over 3.5 41.63% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 58.37% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 4.5 26% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 74% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Villarreal 26% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 34.44% ▼ (-0.06)
Real Madrid 39.56% ▼ (-0.04)

Team To Score First

Villarreal 44.17% ▼ (-0.04)
No Goal 3.87% ▲ (+0.04)
Real Madrid 51.96%

Corners

Over 8 66.94% ▼ (-0.05)
Equal 8 9.81%
Under 8 23.25% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 9 56.2% ▼ (-0.05)
Equal 9 10.74%
Under 9 33.06% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 10.5 45.37% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 10.5 54.63% ▲ (+0.06)

Villarreal Goals

Over 1.5 38.11% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 1.5 61.89% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 2.5 16.47% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 2.5 83.53% ▲ (+0.16)
Over 3.5 5.56% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 94.44% ▲ (+0.04)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 78.94% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 0.5 21.06% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 51.61% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 1.5 48.39% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 2.5 26.25% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 2.5 73.75% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 3.5 11.08% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 88.92% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Villarreal 31.53%
Draw 21.63%
Real Madrid 46.87%
Villarreal
2-1 @ 7.12% ▼ (-0.17)
1-0 @ 5.94% ▲ (+0.10)
2-0 @ 4.04% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 3.7% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.49% ▲ (+0.03)
3-0 @ 1.87% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 5.37%
Total : 31.53%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.45% ▲ (+0.04)
2-2 @ 6.27% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 3.87% ▲ (+0.04)
3-3 @ 1.85% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.19% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 21.63%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 9.37% ▼ (-0.10)
0-1 @ 7.06% ▲ (+0.13)
0-2 @ 6.23% ▲ (+0.14)
1-3 @ 5.66% ▲ (+0.01)
2-3 @ 4.21%
0-3 @ 3.45% ▼ (-0.11)
Other @ 10.89% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 46.87%

Head to Head

La Liga
Real Madrid
Oct 4, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Villarreal
La Liga Gameweek 28
Villarreal
Mar 15, 2025 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
Real Madrid
  • Juan Foyth 7' goal
  • Sergi Cardona 50' yellowcard
  • Juan Foyth 75' yellowcard
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 17'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 23'
  • yellowcard Aurelien Tchouameni 33'
La Liga Gameweek 9
Real Madrid
Oct 5, 2024 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Villarreal
  • Federico Valverde 14' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 73' goal
  • yellowcard Kiko Femenia 33'
La Liga Gameweek 37
Villarreal
May 19, 2024 6.00pm
4
4
HT : 1 4
FT Estadio de la Ceramica
Real Madrid
  • Alexander Sorloth 39' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 48' goal
  • Alberto Moreno 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Alexander Sorloth 52' goal
  • Alexander Sorloth 56' goal
  • Bertrand Traore 84' yellowcard
  • Marcelino 90'+1' yellowcard
  • goal Arda Guler 14'
  • goal Joselu 30'
  • goal Lucas Vazquez 40'
  • goal Arda Guler 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 66'
  • yellowcard Dani Ceballos 86'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Real Madrid
Dec 17, 2023 8.00pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Villarreal
  • Jude Bellingham 25' goal
  • Rodrygo 37' goal
  • Brahim Diaz 64' goal
  • Jude Bellingham 67' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 68' goal
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 83' yellowcard
  • goal Jose Luis Morales 54'
  • yellowcard Adria Altimira 67'
  • yellowcard Ilias Akhomach 74'
  • yellowcard Etienne Capoue 85'
La Liga Gameweek 28
Real Madrid
Apr 8, 2023 8.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Villarreal
  • Pau Torres 16' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 48' goal
  • goal Samuel Chukwueze 39'
  • goal Jose Luis Morales 70'
  • goal Samuel Chukwueze 80'

Form Data

Villarreal 1 - 2 Ajax
Betis 2 - 0 Villarreal
Villarreal 0 - 0 Alaves
Elche 1 - 3 Villarreal
Villarreal 0 - 2 Barcelona
Racing 2 - 1 Villarreal
Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Levante
Albacete 3 - 2 Real Madrid
Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid
Atletico 1 - 2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 5 - 1 Betis

Build-up

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