Champions League Gameweek 7
Jan 20, 2026 8.00pm
Estadio de la Cerámica

Villarreal vs Ajax - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 10, 2025 5.45pm
Villarreal 2 - 3 Copenhagen

Ajax

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Dec 10, 2025 5.45pm
Qarabag 2 - 4 Ajax

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Villarreal win with a probability of 49.93%. A win for Ajax has a probability of 27.63% and a draw has a probability of 22.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win is 2-1 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.78%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Ajax win is 1-2 (6.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.18%).

Result

Villarreal 49.93% (+1.47)
Draw 22.43% (-0.18)
Ajax 27.63% (-1.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.63% (-0.61)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.66% (-0.19)
Under 1.5 19.34% (+0.20)
Over 2.5 59.82% (-0.28)
Under 2.5 40.18% (+0.28)
Over 3.5 36.6% (+0.08)
Under 3.5 63.4% (-0.08)
Over 4.5 22.99% (+0.12)
Under 4.5 77.01% (-0.12)

First Half Winner

Villarreal 38.77% (+0.02)
Draw 36.1%
Ajax 25.13% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Villarreal 56.42% (-0.05)
No Goal 5.08% (+0.07)
Ajax 38.5% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.16% (-0.13)
Equal 8 10.91% (-0.01)
Under 8 29.93% (+0.13)
Over 9 47.92% (-0.11)
Equal 9 11.23% (-0.02)
Under 9 40.84% (+0.13)
Over 10.5 37.27% (-0.09)
Under 10.5 62.73% (+0.09)

Villarreal Goals

Over 1.5 50.75% (+0.98)
Under 1.5 49.25% (-0.98)
Over 2.5 25.36% (+0.74)
Under 2.5 74.64% (-0.74)
Over 3.5 11.19% (+0.38)
Under 3.5 88.81% (-0.38)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5 63.71% (-1.29)
Under 0.5 36.29% (+1.29)
Over 1.5 32.64% (-1.22)
Under 1.5 67.36% (+1.21)
Over 2.5 13.31% (-0.62)
Under 2.5 86.69% (+0.63)
Over 3.5 4.9% (-0.19)
Under 3.5 95.1% (+0.19)

Score analysis

Villarreal 49.92%
Draw 22.44%
Ajax 27.64%
Villarreal
2-1 @ 10.26% (+0.02)
1-0 @ 8.78% (+0.29)
2-0 @ 6.99% (+0.40)
3-1 @ 5.15% (+0.17)
3-0 @ 4.4% (+0.19)
3-2 @ 3.3% (+0.03)
Other @ 11.04% (+0.37)
Total : 49.92%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.18% (-0.11)
2-2 @ 5.71% (-0.10)
0-0 @ 5.08% (+0.07)
3-3 @ 1.32% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.15% (+0.01)
Total : 22.44%
Ajax
1-2 @ 6.65% (-0.32)
0-1 @ 5.48% (-0.16)
0-2 @ 3.67% (-0.21)
1-3 @ 2.75% (-0.13)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.91% (-0.22)
Other @ 4.75% (-0.21)
Total : 27.64%