Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 49.63%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.6%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.94%).