Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 36.98%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 36.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (5.52%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (8.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.