Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 68.22%. A draw has a probability of 18.42% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 13.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.95%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 0-1 (3.8%).