La Liga Gameweek 22
Real Madrid
Feb 1, 2026 1.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Brahim Díaz 10' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 15' goal
  • Dani Ceballos 46' yellowcard
  • Gonzalo García 60' yellowcard
  • David Alaba 77' yellowcard
  • Rodrygo 77' yellowcard
  • Kylian Mbappé 90'+10' yellowcard
  • goal Jorge de Frutos 49'
  • yellowcard Óscar Valentín 56'
  • yellowcard Pedro Díaz 56'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 77'
  • yellowcard Carlos Martín 83'
  • yellowcard Luiz Felipe 83'

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
Villarreal 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappe

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 1.00pm
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 3 Osasuna
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Jorge de Frutos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 67.97%. A draw has a probability of 18.61% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 13.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.69%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.99%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 0-1 (3.89%).

Result

Real Madrid 67.97% ▲ (+0.24)
Draw 18.61% ▼ (-0.17)
Rayo Vallecano 13.39% ▼ (-0.14)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.71% ▲ (+0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.39% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 21.61% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 57.02% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 2.5 42.98% ▼ (-0.27)
Over 3.5 35.55% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 3.5 64.45% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 4.5 23.32% ▲ (+0.31)
Under 4.5 76.68% ▼ (-0.30)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 49.09% ▼ (-0.19)
Draw 34.71% ▼ (-0.11)
Rayo Vallecano 16.2% ▲ (+0.31)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 63.17% ▲ (+0.18)
No Goal 5.64% ▼ (-0.09)
Rayo Vallecano 31.19% ▼ (-0.10)

Corners

Over 8 68.25% ▲ (+0.72)
Equal 8 9.63% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 8 22.13% ▼ (-0.82)
Over 9 57.6% ▲ (+0.54)
Equal 9 10.65% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 9 31.75% ▼ (-0.72)
Over 10.5 46.75% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 10.5 53.25% ▼ (-0.30)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 62.32% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 1.5 37.68% ▼ (-0.26)
Over 2.5 35.37% ▲ (+0.38)
Under 2.5 64.63% ▼ (-0.39)
Over 3.5 16.29% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 3.5 83.71% ▼ (-0.25)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 46.46% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 0.5 53.54% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 1.5 18.04% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 1.5 81.96% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 2.5 5.1% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 94.9% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 1.37% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 98.63% ▲ (+0.01)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 67.97%
Draw 18.6%
Rayo Vallecano 13.38%
Real Madrid
1-0 @ 12.03% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 11.69% ▼ (-0.10)
2-1 @ 9.71% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 7.92%
3-1 @ 6.83% ▲ (+0.08)
3-2 @ 3.58% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 16.21% ▲ (+0.27)
Total : 67.97%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.99% ▼ (-0.10)
0-0 @ 5.64% ▼ (-0.09)
2-2 @ 4.14% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.08% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 18.6%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.03)
1-2 @ 3.51% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 1.71% ▼ (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.41% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.25%
Other @ 1.29%
Total : 13.38%

Head to Head

La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
Nov 9, 2025 3.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Real Madrid
La Liga Gameweek 27
Real Madrid
Mar 9, 2025 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Kylian Mbappe 30' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 34' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 79' yellowcard
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 85' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Pedro Diaz 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Gerard Gumbau 63'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Rayo Vallecano
Dec 14, 2024 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Real Madrid
  • Unai Lopez 4' goal
  • Augusto Batalla 27' yellowcard
  • Randy Nteka 34' yellowcard
  • Abdul Mumin 36' goal
  • Isi 44' yellowcard
  • Isi 64' goal
  • Sergio Camello 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Federico Valverde 39'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 45'
  • goal Rodrygo 56'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 62'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 74'
La Liga Gameweek 25
Rayo Vallecano
Feb 18, 2024 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio de Vallecas
Real Madrid
  • Raul de Tomas 27' goal
  • Isi 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Raul de Tomas 81' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 82' yellowcard
  • goal Joselu 3'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 61'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'+3'
  • redcard Dani Carvajal 90'+5'
La Liga Gameweek 12
Real Madrid
Nov 5, 2023 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Eduardo Camavinga 62' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 74' yellowcard
  • Antonio Rudiger 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 44'
  • yellowcard Pathe Ciss 57'
  • yellowcard Oscar Trejo 88'
  • yellowcard Stole Dimitrievski 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Florian Lejeune 90'+6'
La Liga Gameweek 36
Real Madrid
May 24, 2023 6.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Rayo Vallecano
  • Karim Benzema 31' goal
  • Rodrygo 89' goal
  • goal Raul de Tomas 84'

Form Data

Benfica 4 - 2 Real Madrid
Villarreal 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco
Real Madrid 2 - 0 Levante
Albacete 3 - 2 Real Madrid
Barcelona 3 - 2 Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 3 Osasuna
Celta Vigo 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano
Alaves 2 - 0 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Mallorca
Granada 1 - 3 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Getafe

Build-up

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