La Liga Gameweek 22
Feb 1, 2026 1.00pm
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 8.00pm
Villarreal 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappe

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Jan 24, 2026 1.00pm
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 3 Osasuna
Goals scored
16
Top scorer
Nobel Mendy

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 68.22%. A draw has a probability of 18.42% and a win for Rayo Vallecano has a probability of 13.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.83%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.95%) , while for a Rayo Vallecano win it is 0-1 (3.8%).

Result

Real Madrid 68.22% (-0.07)
Draw 18.42% (-0.02)
Rayo Vallecano 13.35% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.79% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.67% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 21.33% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 57.19% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 42.81% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 35.59% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 64.41%
Over 4.5 23.45% (+0.03)
Under 4.5 76.55% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 49.39% (+0.18)
Draw 34.6% (-0.18)
Rayo Vallecano 16% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 63.14% (+0.05)
No Goal 5.53% (-0.01)
Rayo Vallecano 31.33% (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 68.05% (-0.11)
Equal 8 9.6% (+0.01)
Under 8 22.34% (+0.08)
Over 9 57.45% (-0.11)
Equal 9 10.6% (+0.01)
Under 9 31.95% (+0.10)
Over 10.5 46.67% (-0.11)
Under 10.5 53.33% (+0.11)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 62.59% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 37.41% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 35.57% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 64.43% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 16.42% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 83.58% (-0.05)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5 46.28% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 53.72% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 18.04%
Under 1.5 81.96%
Over 2.5 5.16% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 94.84% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 1.39% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 98.61% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 68.22%
Draw 18.41%
Rayo Vallecano 13.34%
Real Madrid
1-0 @ 11.97% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 11.83% (-0.09)
2-1 @ 9.69% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 8.03%
3-1 @ 6.8% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.57%
Other @ 16.33% (+0.05)
Total : 68.22%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.95%
0-0 @ 5.53% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.09%
Other @ 0.09% (-0.02)
Total : 18.41%
Rayo Vallecano
0-1 @ 3.8%
1-2 @ 3.51%
0-2 @ 1.71% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.41%
1-3 @ 1.25% (+0.02)
Other @ 1.3% (-0.02)
Total : 13.34%

Head to Head

La Liga
Nov 9, 2025 3.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 27
Mar 9, 2025 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Kylian Mbappe 30' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 34' goal
  • Vinicius Junior 79' yellowcard
  • Aurelien Tchouameni 85' yellowcard
  • Luka Modric 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Pedro Diaz 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Gerard Gumbau 63'
La Liga Gameweek 17
Dec 14, 2024 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Unai Lopez 4' goal
  • Augusto Batalla 27' yellowcard
  • Randy Nteka 34' yellowcard
  • Abdul Mumin 36' goal
  • Isi 44' yellowcard
  • Isi 64' goal
  • Sergio Camello 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Federico Valverde 39'
  • goal Jude Bellingham 45'
  • goal Rodrygo 56'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 62'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 74'
La Liga Gameweek 25
Feb 18, 2024 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Raul de Tomas 27' goal
  • Isi 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Ivan Balliu 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Raul de Tomas 81' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 82' yellowcard
  • goal Joselu 3'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 61'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'+3'
  • redcard Dani Carvajal 90'+5'
La Liga Gameweek 12
Nov 5, 2023 8.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
  • Eduardo Camavinga 62' yellowcard
  • Vinicius Junior 74' yellowcard
  • Antonio Rudiger 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Andrei Ratiu 44'
  • yellowcard Pathe Ciss 57'
  • yellowcard Oscar Trejo 88'
  • yellowcard Stole Dimitrievski 90'+1'
  • yellowcard Florian Lejeune 90'+6'
La Liga Gameweek 36
May 24, 2023 6.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
  • Karim Benzema 31' goal
  • Rodrygo 89' goal
  • goal Raul de Tomas 84'

Build-up

Feature