Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elche win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 36.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elche win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.