Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 60.25%. A draw had a probability of 21.96% and a win for Drita had a probability of 17.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%) , while for a Drita win it was 0-1 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.