Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 1-0 (7.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Espanyol | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 27.71% | 24.77% | 47.52% |
| Both teams to score 54.91% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.23% | 47.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.04% | 69.96% |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.77% | 31.23% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.43% | 67.57% |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.85% | 20.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.56% | 52.44% |
| Score Analysis |
| Espanyol | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 7.33% 2-1 @ 6.83% 2-0 @ 4.26% 3-1 @ 2.65% 3-2 @ 2.12% 3-0 @ 1.65% Other @ 2.87% Total : 27.71% | 1-1 @ 11.73% 0-0 @ 6.3% 2-2 @ 5.47% 3-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.77% | 0-1 @ 10.08% 1-2 @ 9.4% 0-2 @ 8.07% 1-3 @ 5.02% 0-3 @ 4.31% 2-3 @ 2.92% 1-4 @ 2.01% 0-4 @ 1.73% 2-4 @ 1.17% Other @ 2.82% Total : 47.52% |