Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Espanyol had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Espanyol win was 1-0 (7.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.