Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 47.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.54% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 26.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%) , while for a Alaves win it was 1-0 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.