Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 53.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.16% and a win for Mallorca had a probability of 20.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%) , while for a Mallorca win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood.