Champions League Gameweek 8
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Juventus 2 - 0 Benfica

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 8.00pm
Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Benfica win with a probability of 40.44%. A win for Real Madrid has a probability of 36.78% and a draw has a probability of 22.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Real Madrid win is 1-2 (8.5%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.18%).

Result

Benfica 40.44% (+0.20)
Draw 22.78% (+0.08)
Real Madrid 36.78% (-0.27)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.34% (-0.10)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.73% (-0.13)
Under 1.5 19.27% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 59.52% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 40.48% (+0.17)
Over 3.5 36.75% (-0.16)
Under 3.5 63.25% (+0.16)
Over 4.5 22.21% (-0.15)
Under 4.5 77.79% (+0.16)

First Half Winner

Benfica 30.73%
Draw 36.24%
Real Madrid 33.03%

Team To Score First

Benfica 55.12% (-0.03)
No Goal 4.85% (+0.03)
Real Madrid 40.03% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 54.42%
Equal 8 10.89%
Under 8 34.68%
Over 9 43.59%
Equal 9 10.84%
Under 9 45.58%
Over 10.5 33.62%
Under 10.5 66.38%

Benfica Goals

Over 1.5 43.28% (+0.10)
Under 1.5 56.72% (-0.10)
Over 2.5 20.23% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 79.77% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 7.61% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 92.39% (-0.02)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 70.75% (-0.19)
Under 0.5 29.25% (+0.20)
Over 1.5 41.37% (-0.29)
Under 1.5 58.63% (+0.29)
Over 2.5 18.41% (-0.24)
Under 2.5 81.59% (+0.25)
Over 3.5 6.8% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 93.2% (+0.15)

Score analysis

Benfica 40.44%
Draw 22.76%
Real Madrid 36.79%
Benfica
2-1 @ 8.39% (+0.04)
1-0 @ 8% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 5.69% (+0.05)
3-1 @ 4.4% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 3.31% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 3.26%
Other @ 7.39% (+0.02)
Total : 40.44%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.18% (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.86% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 4.85% (+0.03)
3-3 @ 1.65% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 22.76%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 8.5% (-0.02)
0-1 @ 6.41% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 5.34% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 4.27% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 3.11% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.58% (-0.03)
Other @ 6.58% (-0.14)
Total : 36.79%

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