Champions League
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
4
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
  • Andreas Schjelderup 36' goal
  • Vangelis Pavlidis 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Andreas Schjelderup 54' goal
  • Enzo Barrenechea 83' yellowcard
  • Joao Pedro Seno Luis Rego 87' yellowcard
  • João Rego 87' yellowcard
  • Franjo Ivanovic 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Antonio Silva 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Franjo Ivanović 90'+3' yellowcard
  • António Silva 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Anatoliy Trubin 90'+8' goal
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 30'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 30'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 55'
  • yellowcard Rodrygo 55'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 58'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 58'
  • yellowcard David Alaba 78'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 79'
  • yellowcard Jorge Cestero Sancho 79'
  • yellowcard Brahim Díaz 79'

Benfica vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 21, 2026 8.00pm
Juventus 2 - 0 Benfica

Real Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Jan 20, 2026 8.00pm
Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.03%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 36.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (8.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%).

Result

Benfica 41.03%
Draw 22.81% (-0.04)
Real Madrid 36.12% (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.18% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.66% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 19.34% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 58.7% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 41.3% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 35.58% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 64.42% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 21.61% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 78.39% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Benfica 32.01% (-0.02)
Draw 38.06% (+0.03)
Real Madrid 29.93% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Benfica 57.46% (+0.04)
No Goal 4.92% (-0.03)
Real Madrid 37.62% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 54.93% (+0.03)
Equal 8 11.28%
Under 8 33.79% (-0.03)
Over 9 43.69% (+0.02)
Equal 9 11.24%
Under 9 45.07% (-0.03)
Over 10.5 33.36% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 66.64% (-0.02)

Benfica Goals

Over 1.5 43.29% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 56.71% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 20.29% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 79.71% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 7.76% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 92.24% (-0.02)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 69.7% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 30.3% (+0.02)
Over 1.5 40.26% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 59.74% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 17.59% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 82.41% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 6.43% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.57% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Benfica 41.03%
Draw 22.82%
Real Madrid 36.13%
Benfica
2-1 @ 8.41%
1-0 @ 7.98% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 6% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.09%
3-0 @ 3.75%
3-2 @ 3.17%
Other @ 7.63% (+0.01)
Total : 41.03%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.52% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 5.73%
0-0 @ 4.92% (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.52% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.82%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 8.34%
0-1 @ 6.42% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.43% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 4.16%
2-3 @ 2.86%
0-3 @ 2.62%
Other @ 6.3% (+0.01)
Total : 36.13%

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