Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 28.84% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Benfica win was 0-1 (8.58%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.