Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.17%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 23.52% and a draw had a probability of 23.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Malmo win was 0-1 (6.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.