Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 70%. A draw had a probability of 18.71% and a win for Alverca had a probability of 11.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.4%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.88%) , while for a Alverca win it was 1-0 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.