Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 38.12%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.