Primeira Liga

Dec 7, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estrela Amadora
3-1
Arouca Arouca

Kikas (29'), Marcus (34'), Pinho (89')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Fukui (59')
Pinto (28'), Fukui (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Estrela Amadora and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Estrela Amadora
Monday, December 15 at 8.45pm in Primeira Liga

Next Game: Estrela Amadora vs. Moreirense
Saturday, December 20 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 1-0 Alverca
Sunday, December 14 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Next Game: Santa Clara vs. Arouca
Sunday, December 21 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.

Result
Estrela Amadora	Draw	Arouca
41.63%	25.78%	32.58%

Both teams to score 54.25%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.16%

49.83%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.16%

71.83%

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.26%

23.73%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.13%

57.86%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.12%

28.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.26%

64.73%

Score Analysis

Estrela Amadora 41.63%

Arouca 32.58%

Draw 25.78%

Estrela Amadora	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 9.85% 2-1 @ 8.81% 2-0 @ 7.09% 3-1 @ 4.22% 3-0 @ 3.4% 3-2 @ 2.62% 4-1 @ 1.52% 4-0 @ 1.22% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.96% Total : 41.63%	1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 6.85% 2-2 @ 5.47% 3-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.78%	0-1 @ 8.51% 1-2 @ 7.61% 0-2 @ 5.29% 1-3 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.27% 0-3 @ 2.19% 1-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.6% Total : 32.58%