Preview: Benfica vs Real Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Jose Mourinho leads his Benfica side into a must-win encounter against his former club Real Madrid as both teams meet at Estadio da Luz on Wednesday for matchday eight of the Champions League league phase.

The hosts sit 29th in the 36-team table and are two points adrift of the final qualification spot, while the Spanish visitors are third but not yet assured of a top-eight finish, with only two points separating them from 15th-placed Juventus.

Match preview

Benfica began their league-phase campaign in disastrous fashion, losing each of their opening four fixtures, although consecutive 2-0 victories over Ajax and Napoli briefly reignited hopes of a place in the knockout playoffs.

That resurgence came crashing down last week, however, as the Eagles suffered a 2-0 defeat away at Juventus, a result that cast fresh doubt over their top-24 ambitions.

While qualification is no longer in their own hands, Benfica can still mathematically claim one of the final six playoff spots, although doing so would require favourable outcomes elsewhere alongside a famous victory over the 15-time Champions League winners.

The Portuguese giants can at least draw confidence from history, having lifted the trophy twice, with one of those triumphs coming against Madrid in the 1961-62 final, while a 5-1 success in their only previous meeting at Da Luz leaves the Eagles with two wins from three clashes in this fixture.

Benfica head into Wednesday’s encounter on the back of strong home form, having secured a fourth consecutive victory in front of their fans with a 4-0 thrashing of Estrela Amadora at the weekend, leaving them third in the Primeira Liga table and 10 points adrift of the summit.

That response was timely for Mourinho’s men, who had lost three of their previous four matches, a run that saw them eliminated from both the Taca da Liga and Taca de Portugal, making progression in Europe a potential source of much-needed relief.

Madrid have also endured turbulence in recent weeks, beginning with a Super Cup final defeat to archrivals Barcelona that led to the dismissal of Xabi Alonso, before Alvaro Arbeloa oversaw a disappointing Copa del Rey exit against second-tier Albacete in his first match in charge.

Since then, Los Blancos have won each of their last three matches across all competitions, including a 2-0 victory away at Villarreal over the weekend, where a Kylian Mbappe brace moved them to within one point of the La Liga summit.

The French forward also struck twice four days earlier in a 6-1 Champions League victory over Monaco, taking his tally in the competition to 11 strikes and equalling Cristiano Ronaldo’s 2015-16 record for the most goals scored in a single group-stage or league-phase campaign.

Having claimed maximum points from five of their seven matches in the elite this season (L2), Madrid are one victory away from securing direct qualification to the last 16 and will be confident of doing so, having won eight of their last 10 UEFA meetings with Portuguese opposition, including four successive away victories.
 

Benfica Champions League form:

Benfica form (all competitions):

Real Madrid Champions League form:

Real Madrid form (all competitions):

Team News

Benfica remain without Alexander Bah (knee), Samuel Soares (muscle), Dodi Lukebakio (ankle) and Henrique Araujo (muscle), while Richard Rios is set to miss a fourth straight match due to a fitness issue.

January signing Sidny Lopes Cabral scored in the league win over Estrela Amadora but is ineligible to feature, with Rafa Silva also unavailable for the same reason despite making his debut off the bench in that match.

Wednesday’s clash marks a milestone for veteran defender Nicolas Otamendi, who is set to become just the third Argentine to reach 100 Champions League appearances, after Lionel Messi and Angel Di Maria.

Vangelis Pavlidis ended a three-game scoring drought with a brace at the weekend and will look to carry that momentum into this encounter.

For Madrid, Mbappe arrives in red-hot form, having scored in each of his last three matches to take his total to five goals over that period.

The visitors will remain without Trent Alexander-Arnold (thigh), Eder Militao (hamstring), Ferland Mendy (hamstring) and Antonio Rudiger (knee).

Aurelien Tchouameni returns to the squad after serving a suspension in the league win over Villarreal, while Alvaro Carreras is set to face his former club following his move from Benfica to Madrid last summer.
 

Benfica possible starting lineup:

Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Barreiro, Sudakov; Pavlidis

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Tchouameni, Bellingham, Guler; Mastantuono, Mbappe, Vinicius 

We say: Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid

Despite Benfica’s historical success in this fixture, they have generally struggled against Spanish opposition, winning just three of their last 25 UEFA matches against teams from Spain (L14).

With Madrid’s only Champions League defeats this season coming against Manchester City and Liverpool, Los Blancos should still find a way to edge past the Eagles, who are short on quality compared to those elite opponents.

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