Champions League
Benfica
Feb 17, 2026 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Real Madrid
  • Richard Rios 74' yellowcard
  • Heorhiy Sudakov 74' yellowcard
  • Richard Ríos 74' yellowcard
  • Georgiy Sudakov 74' yellowcard
  • Gianluca Prestianni 78' yellowcard
  • José Mourinho 78' yellowcard
  • Sidny Lopes Cabral 80' yellowcard
  • Sidny Cabral 80' yellowcard
  • Dodi Lukebakio 81' yellowcard
  • Dodi Lukébakio 81' yellowcard
  • José Mourinho 85' yellowcard
  • José Mourinho 85' redcard
  • Georgiy Sudakov 90'+2' yellowcard
  • 90'+2' yellowcard
  • goal Vinicius Junior 50'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Junior 51'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 86'
  • yellowcard Brahim Díaz 86'
  • yellowcard Kylian Mbappé 87'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'
  • yellowcard Thiago Pitarch Pinar 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Thiago Pitarch 90'+4'
  • yellowcard Dani Carvajal 90'+9'
  • yellowcard Daniel Carvajal  90'+9'

Benfica vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Real Madrid

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result

Benfica 42.47% ▼ (-0.38)
Draw 23.01% ▲ (+0.22)
Real Madrid 34.49% ▲ (+0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.56% ▼ (-0.58)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.33% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 17.67% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 2.5 61.49% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 38.51% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 39.05% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 3.5 60.92% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 4.5 24.02% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 4.5 75.98% ▼ (-0.24)

First Half Winner

Benfica 35.18% ▲ (+1.57)
Draw 37.2% ▼ (-1.72)
Real Madrid 27.62% ▲ (+0.17)

Team To Score First

Benfica 53.23% ▼ (-0.59)
No Goal 4.35% ▲ (+0.13)
Real Madrid 42.42% ▲ (+0.46)

Corners

Over 8 57.28% ▼ (-0.30)
Equal 8 11.3% ▼ (-0.49)
Under 8 31.42% ▲ (+0.79)
Over 9 45.81% ▲ (+0.25)
Equal 9 11.47% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 9 42.72% ▲ (+0.30)
Over 10.5 35.1% ▲ (+0.71)
Under 10.5 64.9% ▼ (-0.70)

Benfica Goals

Over 1.5 46.93% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 1.5 53.07% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 22.39% ▼ (-0.26)
Under 2.5 77.61% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 3.5 8.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 91.22% ▲ (+0.02)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 70.23% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 29.77% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 1.5 40.79% ▲ (+0.16)
Under 1.5 59.21% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 2.5 18% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 82% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 6.91% ▲ (+0.20)
Under 3.5 93.09% ▼ (-0.19)

Score analysis

Benfica 42.46%
Draw 23%
Real Madrid 34.49%
Benfica
2-1 @ 8.75% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 7.41% ▼ (-0.25)
2-0 @ 6.02% ▲ (+0.07)
3-1 @ 4.76% ▼ (-0.13)
3-2 @ 3.58% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 3.49% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 8.45% ▼ (-0.04)
Total : 42.46%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.07% ▲ (+0.04)
2-2 @ 6.47% ▲ (+0.06)
0-0 @ 4.35% ▲ (+0.13)
3-3 @ 1.78% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 0.33% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 23%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 7.98% ▼ (-0.09)
0-1 @ 5.86% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 4.76% ▲ (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.79% ▼ (-0.07)
2-3 @ 3.3% ▲ (+0.19)
0-3 @ 2.22% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 6.58% ▲ (+0.17)
Total : 34.49%

Head to Head

Champions League Gameweek 8
Benfica
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
4
2
HT : 2 2
FT Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Real Madrid
  • Leandro Barreiro 10' yellowcard
  • Andreas Schjelderup 36' goal
  • Vangelis Pavlidis 45'+5' goal
  • Vangelis Pavlidis 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Andreas Schjelderup 54' goal
  • Enzo Barrenechea 83' yellowcard
  • Samuel Dahl 85' yellowcard
  • Joao Pedro Seno Luis Rego 87' yellowcard
  • João Rego 87' yellowcard
  • Franjo Ivanovic 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Antonio Silva 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Franjo Ivanović 90'+3' yellowcard
  • António Silva 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Anatoliy Trubin 90'+8' goal
  • yellowcard Aurélien Tchouaméni 3'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 30'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 30'
  • yellowcard Raúl Asencio 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 55'
  • yellowcard Rodrygo 55'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 58'
  • goal Kylian Mbappé 58'
  • yellowcard Dean Huijsen 62'
  • yellowcard Álvaro Carreras  66'
  • yellowcard David Alaba 78'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 79'
  • yellowcard Jorge Cestero Sancho 79'
  • yellowcard Brahim Díaz 79'
  • redcard Raúl Asencio 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Rodrygo 90'+6'
  • redcard Rodrygo 90'+6'

Form Data

Santa Clara 1 - 2 Benfica
Benfica 2 - 1 Alverca
Tondela 0 - 0 Benfica
Benfica 4 - 2 Real Madrid
Benfica 4 - 0 Estrela Amadora
Juventus 2 - 0 Benfica
Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad
Valencia 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Benfica 4 - 2 Real Madrid
Villarreal 0 - 2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid 6 - 1 Monaco

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