Champions League
Feb 17, 2026 8.00pm
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica vs Real Madrid - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Real Madrid

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Benfica win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Real Madrid has a probability of 34.37% and a draw has a probability of 22.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.63%) and 2-0 (5.95%). The likeliest Real Madrid win is 1-2 (8.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.09%).

Result

Benfica 42.78% (-0.40)
Draw 22.86% (+0.25)
Real Madrid 34.37% (+0.16)

Both Teams to Score: 

62.1% (-0.50)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.25% (-0.33)
Under 1.5 17.75% (+0.33)
Over 2.5 61.45% (-0.61)
Under 2.5 38.55% (+0.61)
Over 3.5 38.55% (-0.82)
Under 3.5 61.45% (+0.82)
Over 4.5 23.5% (-0.72)
Under 4.5 76.5% (+0.72)

First Half Winner

Benfica 33.55% (-0.15)
Draw 39.06% (-0.01)
Real Madrid 27.39% (+0.15)

Team To Score First

Benfica 53.89% (-0.65)
No Goal 4.24% (+0.15)
Real Madrid 41.87% (+0.51)

Corners

Over 8 57.58% (+0.11)
Equal 8 11.79% (-0.02)
Under 8 30.63% (-0.11)
Over 9 45.57% (+0.11)
Equal 9 12.01% (+0.01)
Under 9 42.42% (-0.11)
Over 10.5 34.39% (+0.10)
Under 10.5 65.61% (-0.10)

Benfica Goals

Over 1.5 46.74% (-0.62)
Under 1.5 53.26% (+0.62)
Over 2.5 22.5% (-0.54)
Under 2.5 77.5% (+0.55)
Over 3.5 8.66% (-0.33)
Under 3.5 91.34% (+0.33)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5 70.23% (+0.13)
Under 0.5 29.77% (-0.13)
Over 1.5 40.61% (-0.15)
Under 1.5 59.39% (+0.15)
Over 2.5 17.75% (-0.22)
Under 2.5 82.25% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 6.65% (-0.15)
Under 3.5 93.35% (+0.15)

Score analysis

Benfica 42.78%
Draw 22.86%
Real Madrid 34.38%
Benfica
2-1 @ 8.81% (+0.04)
1-0 @ 7.63% (+0.08)
2-0 @ 5.95% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 4.82% (-0.07)
3-0 @ 3.6%
3-2 @ 3.6% (-0.11)
Other @ 8.37% (-0.33)
Total : 42.78%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.09% (+0.17)
2-2 @ 6.42% (-0.03)
0-0 @ 4.24% (+0.15)
3-3 @ 1.82% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.86%
Real Madrid
1-2 @ 8.1% (+0.12)
0-1 @ 5.9% (+0.15)
0-2 @ 4.74% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 3.82% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 3.06% (-0.11)
0-3 @ 2.4% (+0.07)
Other @ 6.36% (-0.15)
Total : 34.38%

Head to Head

Champions League Gameweek 8
Jan 28, 2026 8.00pm
4
2
HT : 1 1
FT Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
  • Andreas Schjelderup 36' goal
  • Vangelis Pavlidis 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Andreas Schjelderup 54' goal
  • Enzo Barrenechea 83' yellowcard
  • Joao Pedro Seno Luis Rego 87' yellowcard
  • Franjo Ivanovic 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Antonio Silva 90'+3' yellowcard
  • Anatoliy Trubin 90'+8' goal
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 30'
  • yellowcard Eduardo Camavinga 55'
  • yellowcard Rodrygo 55'
  • goal Kylian Mbappe 58'
  • yellowcard David Alaba 78'
  • yellowcard Brahim Diaz 79'
  • yellowcard Jorge Cestero Sancho 79'

Build-up

Feature