Preview: Real Madrid vs Manchester City - prediction, team news, lineups

The 16th Champions League instalment of Real Madrid vs. Manchester City takes centre stage at the Bernabeu on Wednesday night when both sides butt heads for the first leg of their last-16 tie.

This eagerly-anticipated fixture will become the first in the competition's history to be played in the knockout stages in five consecutive campaigns.

Match preview

Seeking to win a record-extending 16th European crown this season, Real Madrid were forced into the Champions League knockout round playoffs after finishing ninth in the League Phase, one place and one point behind Man City after losing three of their final five fixtures.

A 4-2 defeat at Benfica on matchday eight consigned Los Blancos to the playoffs, but Alvaro Arbeloa’s men avenged that loss by beating the Portuguese club 3-1 on aggregate to reach the last 16 for a 23rd straight season since the round was introduced in the 2003-04 Champions League.

Since then, Real Madrid have had mixed success in La Liga, with a surprise 1-0 defeat to Getafe followed by a last-gasp 2-1 victory at Celta Vigo last Friday. Captain Federico Valverde netted a 95th-minute winner to keep them within four points of leaders and title rivals Barcelona with 11 league games remaining.

On Wednesday, Real Madrid return to the Bernabeu, where they have won four and lost just one of their five Champions League home games this season, scoring 12 goals in the process, though that solitary defeat was against Man City in December, losing 2-1 on matchday five of the League Phase.

The Spanish giants have, in fact, lost each of their last four UEFA games against English opposition, but they have been beaten in only three of their last 25 Champions League home matches (W19 D3) against all clubs. They should also take comfort from the fact that they have prevailed in 13 of their last 15 UCL last-16 ties, winning the first leg in 10 of their last 12 ties at this stage.

After finishing down in 22nd place in the League Phase before suffering a 6-3 aggregate defeat to Real Madrid in the playoffs last season, Man City accumulated 16 points from eight League Phase matches this term to secure automatic last-16 qualification.

One of their five League Phase wins was the aforementioned 2-1 success at Real Madrid – just their second win in eight matches at the Bernabeu (D2 L4) – courtesy of goals from Erling Haaland and Nico O'Reilly. They also beat Napoli, Villarreal, Borussia Dortmund and Galatasaray, winning 2-0 at home to the latter on matchday eight.

Since that victory at the end of January, Pep Guardiola’s side have played nine domestic games, winning seven of those and drawing two. A frustrating 2-2 Premier League draw at home to Nottingham Forest last week has seen them fall seven points behind title rivals Arsenal at the summit. However, a much-changed side responded by beating Newcastle United 3-1 in the FA Cup fifth round on Saturday.

Guardiola is now gearing up for his 190th Champions League game as a manager, which will see the former Barcelona boss draw level with Sir Alex Ferguson. His Man City side enter Wednesday’s clash with Real Madrid having won only two of their last eight UCL away matches (D1 L5), while they have also lost seven of their last 10 two-legged ties against Spanish teams in UEFA competition.

However, the Citizens have suffered defeat in only three of their last 18 UEFA battles with Spanish opposition (W10 D5) and have already won both of their away games against Spanish sides in this season's competition, beating Real Madrid and Villarreal (2-0) in the League Phase.

Real Madrid Champions League form:

Real Madrid form (all competitions):

Manchester City Champions League form:

Manchester City form (all competitions):

Team News

Key Real Madrid duo Kylian Mbappe (knee) and Jude Bellingham (hamstring) are both expected to miss Wednesday’s contest through injury, joining Rodrygo (ACL), Eder Militao (hamstring), Dani Ceballos and Alvaro Carreras (both calf) on the sidelines.

Eduardo Camavinga (dental) and David Alaba (calf) are both doubtful and will be assessed ahead of kickoff, but Dean Huijsen and Franco Mastantuono are both available to return from domestic bans, though a start for either player is unlikely.

If fit, Camavinga will likely replace 18-year-old Thiago Pitarch and link up with Valverde and Aurelien Tchouameni in central midfield. Arda Guler is also a contender to operate centrally if he is not deployed on the right flank.

Vinicius Junior, who has failed to score in his last six meetings with Man City, has netted 12 of his last 13 Champions League goals in the second half of matches, and he is expected to start on the left side of a front three, with either Gonzalo Garcia or former City youngster Brahim Diaz leading the line.

As for Man City, Josko Gvardiol (tibial fracture) and Mateo Kovacic (ankle/heel) are the only two injury absentees, and Guardiola is set to revert to a strong lineup after making 10 changes against Newcastle last weekend.

Haaland, who was rested last time out, is expected to start up front - the Norwegian has scored 56 goals in as many Champions League appearances and 10 in his last 10 matches against Spanish opposition in the competition, including a penalty converted at the Bernabeu in December.

Matheus Nunes is set to continue at right-back and test his mettle against Vinicius Jr, joining Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi and Rayan Ait-Nouri in defence, while Rodri, O’Reilly and captain Bernardo Silva are the most likely trio to link arms in midfield.

Guardiola has a big call to make over who should start in attack with Haaland and Antoine Semenyo. Omar Marmoush netted a brace against Newcastle, while Savinho was also on the scoresheet last weekend, but they face competition from Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden and Jeremy Doku for a start.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Asencio, Rudiger, Carreras; Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga; Guler; G. Garcia, Vinicius Jr

Manchester City possible starting lineup:

Donnarumma; Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri; Bernardo, Rodri, O’Reilly; Semenyo, Haaland, Marmoush

We say: Real Madrid 1-2 Manchester City

The expected absence of top scorer Mbappe and key midfielder Bellingham is a huge blow for Real Madrid as they prepare to face a refreshed Man City side, who have already won in the Spanish capital this season and boast an 11-game unbeaten run in all competitions.

Los Blancos should never be written off in any contest, especially in the Champions League, but we feel that Guardiola’s men may just do enough to take a slender advantage back to the Etihad Stadium for next week’s second leg.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.