Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 25.91% and a draw had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (6.84%) and 0-1 (6.37%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (5.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.