Champions League
Feb 24, 2026 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 2 0
FT St. James' Park
  • Sandro Tonali 4' goal
  • Joelinton 6' goal
  • Sven Botman 52' goal
  • Anthony Gordon 54' yellowcard
  • Lewis Hall 54' yellowcard
  • Joe Willock 54' yellowcard
  • Joelinton 54' yellowcard
  • Yoane Wissa 73' yellowcard
  • Leo Shahar 87' yellowcard
  • goal Camilo Durán 50'
  • goal Elvin Cafarquliyev 57'
  • yellowcard Marko Jankovic 57'
  • yellowcard Kady Borges 62'
  • yellowcard Oleksiy Kashchuk 69'
  • yellowcard Musa Qurbanly 79'
  • yellowcard Elvin Cafarquliyev 79'
  • yellowcard Toral Bayramov 79'
  • yellowcard Emmanuel Addai 79'

Newcastle United vs Qarabag FK - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Newcastle United

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Feb 18, 2026 5.45pm
Qarabag 1 - 6 Newcastle

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Champions League
Last game
Feb 18, 2026 5.45pm
Qarabag 1 - 6 Newcastle

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 32.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.

Result

Newcastle United 45.75% (+0.10)
Draw 22.16% (-0.02)
Qarabag FK 32.06% (-0.15)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.38% (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.93% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 18.07% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 61.06% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 38.94% (+0.06)
Over 3.5 39.06% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 60.94% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 24.48% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 75.52% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Newcastle United 30.75%
Draw 39.37%
Qarabag FK 29.88%

Team To Score First

Newcastle United 49.02%
No Goal 4.63%
Qarabag FK 46.35%

Corners

Over 8 62.4% (+0.06)
Equal 8 10.49%
Under 8 27.11% (-0.07)
Over 9 51.32% (+0.05)
Equal 9 11.08% (+0.01)
Under 9 37.6% (-0.06)
Over 10.5 40.55% (+0.04)
Under 10.5 59.45% (-0.04)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 1.5 48.7% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 51.3% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 24.72% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 75.28% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 10.54%
Under 3.5 89.46%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5 66.67% (-0.13)
Under 0.5 33.33% (+0.13)
Over 1.5 37.4% (-0.13)
Under 1.5 62.6% (+0.13)
Over 2.5 16.58% (-0.10)
Under 2.5 83.42% (+0.10)
Over 3.5 6.46% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 93.54% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Newcastle United 45.74%
Draw 22.16%
Qarabag FK 32.05%
Newcastle United
2-1 @ 8.56%
1-0 @ 7.61% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 6.65% (+0.04)
3-1 @ 5.14% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.12% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.39% (+0.02)
Other @ 10.27%
Total : 45.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.79%
2-2 @ 5.94%
0-0 @ 4.63%
3-3 @ 1.53% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.16%
Qarabag FK
1-2 @ 7.04% (-0.02)
0-1 @ 5.78% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 4.45% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 3.49% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.83% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.27% (-0.03)
Other @ 6.19% (-0.03)
Total : 32.05%

Head to Head

Champions League
Feb 18, 2026 5.45pm
1
6
HT : 0 3
FT Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))
  • Daniel Lima de Castro 22' yellowcard
  • Dani Bolt 22' yellowcard
  • Badavi Huseynov 46' yellowcard
  • Badavi Hüseynov 46' yellowcard
  • Elvin Cafarquliyev 54' goal
  • Kady 85' yellowcard
  • Emmanuel Addai 85' yellowcard
  • Kady Borges 85' yellowcard
  • Musa Gurbanli 88' yellowcard
  • Musa Qurbanly 88' yellowcard
  • goal Anthony Gordon 3'
  • goal Malick Thiaw 8'
  • yellowcard Anthony Gordon 32'
  • goal Anthony Gordon 33'
  • yellowcard Anthony Gordon 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Will Osula 68'
  • yellowcard Jacob Murphy 68'
  • yellowcard Jacob Ramsey 68'
  • yellowcard William Osula 68'
  • goal Jacob Murphy 72'
  • yellowcard Joelinton 77'
  • yellowcard Sean Neave 87'

Build-up

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