Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 32.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.