Champions League
Qarabag
Feb 18, 2026 5.45pm
1
6
HT : 0 3
FT Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))
Newcastle
  • Daniel Lima de Castro 22' yellowcard
  • Dani Bolt 22' yellowcard
  • Badavi Huseynov 46' yellowcard
  • Badavi Hüseynov 46' yellowcard
  • Elvin Cafarquliyev 54' goal
  • Kady 85' yellowcard
  • Emmanuel Addai 85' yellowcard
  • Kady Borges 85' yellowcard
  • Musa Gurbanli 88' yellowcard
  • Musa Qurbanly 88' yellowcard
  • goal Anthony Gordon 3'
  • goal Malick Thiaw 8'
  • yellowcard Anthony Gordon 32'
  • goal Anthony Gordon 33'
  • yellowcard Anthony Gordon 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Will Osula 68'
  • yellowcard Jacob Murphy 68'
  • yellowcard Jacob Ramsey 68'
  • yellowcard William Osula 68'
  • goal Jacob Murphy 72'
  • yellowcard Joelinton 77'
  • yellowcard Sean Neave 87'

Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

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The match

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Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

All competitions

Newcastle United

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (7.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%).

Result

Qarabag FK 41.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Draw 23.16% ▼ (-0.02)
Newcastle United 35.66% ▲ (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.17% ▼ (-0.06)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.38% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 21.62% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 56.09% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 43.91% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 33.04% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 66.96% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 4.5 19.68%
Under 4.5 80.32%

First Half Winner

Qarabag FK 40.56%
Draw 37.55%
Newcastle United 21.9%

Team To Score First

Qarabag FK 59.59%
No Goal 5.57%
Newcastle United 34.84%

Corners

Over 8 61.38% ▲ (+0.02)
Equal 8 10.9%
Under 8 27.72% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 9 49.96% ▲ (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.42% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 9 38.62% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 10.5 38.97%
Under 10.5 61.03%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 1.5 42.2% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 57.8% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 20.12% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 79.88% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 7.74%
Under 3.5 92.26%

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5 68.6% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 31.4% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 1.5 37.76% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 62.24% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 16.21% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 83.79% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 3.5 5.82%
Under 3.5 94.18%

Score analysis

Qarabag FK 41.19%
Draw 23.16%
Newcastle United 35.66%
Qarabag FK
1-0 @ 8.32%
2-1 @ 8.29% ▼ (-0.03)
2-0 @ 6.11% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.32%
3-0 @ 3.92% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.74%
Other @ 7.49%
Total : 41.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.49% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.57%
2-2 @ 5.45% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.4%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.16%
Newcastle United
0-1 @ 7.74% ▲ (+0.05)
1-2 @ 7.68% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 5.68% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 3.59% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 3.17%
2-3 @ 2.23%
Other @ 5.57%
Total : 35.66%

Form Data

Liverpool 6 - 0 Qarabag
Qarabag 3 - 2 Frankfurt
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 3 Qarabag
Osijek 1 - 3 Qarabag
Qarabag 2 - 4 Ajax
Napoli 2 - 0 Qarabag
Aston Villa 1 - 3 Newcastle
Spurs 1 - 2 Newcastle
Newcastle 2 - 3 Brentford
Man City 3 - 1 Newcastle
Liverpool 4 - 1 Newcastle
PSG 1 - 1 Newcastle

Build-up

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