Champions League
Feb 18, 2026 5.45pm
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu (Bakı (Baku))

Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

All competitions

Newcastle United

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for Newcastle United has a probability of 36.2% and a draw has a probability of 23.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (5.99%). The likeliest Newcastle United win is 1-2 (7.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.44%).

Result

Qarabag FK 40.81% (-0.08)
Draw 23.02% (-0.09)
Newcastle United 36.2% (+0.17)

Both Teams to Score: 

54% (-0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.19% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 21.81% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 56.06% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 43.94% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 32.36% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 67.64% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 19.18% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 80.82% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Qarabag FK 37.85% (-0.11)
Draw 38.77% (+0.07)
Newcastle United 23.37% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Qarabag FK 55% (-0.10)
No Goal 5.6% (-0.04)
Newcastle United 39.4% (+0.12)

Corners

Over 8 58.64% (+0.04)
Equal 8 10.96%
Under 8 30.39% (-0.06)
Over 9 47.4% (+0.04)
Equal 9 11.24%
Under 9 41.36% (-0.04)
Over 10.5 36.78% (+0.04)
Under 10.5 63.22% (-0.04)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 1.5 41.66% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 58.34% (+0.07)
Over 2.5 19.5% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 80.5% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 7.44% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 92.56% (+0.02)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5 68.95% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 31.05% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 37.88% (+0.11)
Under 1.5 62.12% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 16.27% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 83.73% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 5.69% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 94.31% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Qarabag FK 40.82%
Draw 23.01%
Newcastle United 36.2%
Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.03)
1-0 @ 8.36%
2-0 @ 5.99% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.21%
3-0 @ 3.86% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.59%
Other @ 7.27%
Total : 40.82%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.44% (-0.03)
0-0 @ 5.6% (-0.04)
2-2 @ 5.4% (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.17% (-0.01)
Total : 23.01%
Newcastle United
1-2 @ 7.92% (+0.02)
0-1 @ 7.88% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 5.7% (+0.04)
1-3 @ 3.57% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 3.38% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.23% (+0.05)
Other @ 5.52% (+0.03)
Total : 36.2%

Build-up

Feature