Preview: Qarabag FK vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Both debutants at this stage of the Champions League, Qarabag FK and Newcastle United face off at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium on Wednesday in the first leg of their knockout phase playoff tie.

Winless in three of four away matches in Europe this term, the travelling Geordies will hope for an encouraging performance and result in Baku, aiming to halt the Azerbaijani outfit’s admirable European campaign by taking a positive scoreline into next week’s reverse fixture at St James’ Park.

Match preview

If any Qarabag supporter had been told before a ball was kicked in this season’s Champions League that the Horsemen would still be involved in the competition at this stage, they would have bitten anyone’s hand off.

The Azerbaijani club had never secured three points in the competition in their history until defeating Benfica in a comeback 3-2 victory in September, a win that has since been followed by triumphs against Copenhagen and Eintracht Frankfurt on matchdays two and seven.

Despite a 6-0 hammering by Liverpool on the concluding matchday of the league phase, Gurban Gurbanov’s team still made history by becoming the first side from Azerbaijan to make it this far, and they now seek to take it a step further.

However, the precedent is undoubtedly against the Blue and Whites, given their historical disadvantage against English teams in Europe: they have lost seven of eight meetings, drawing the other, ahead of hosting Newcastle in Baku.

Nonetheless, supporters will point to that sole draw coming in their most recent encounter with an English side, when they held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw at the start of November, a result that marked the second of four league-phase fixtures in Baku in which Gurbanov’s men scored at least twice at home: defeating Copenhagen and Frankfurt 2-0 and 3-2 respectively, drawing with Chelsea and losing 4-2 to Ajax.

Aware of Qarabag’s free-scoring nature in Baku, the Toon Army head to Atlilar looking to claim a positive result to halt their winless away run in the competition.

Since thrashing Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 on matchday two, Howe’s side have failed to secure a victory in three fixtures: losing 2-1 in Marseille and claiming score draws at Bayer Leverkusen (2-2) and Paris Saint-Germain (1-1).

The latter of those results, at the home of the continental champions, was undoubtedly a point gained rather than two lost, adding some much-needed context to the situation.

Aiming to carry their momentum from recent wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa into Wednesday, the Magpies now seek to record three victories in a row across all competitions for the third time this season, after similar runs in October 2025 and December–January 2026.

Fresh from comeback wins away at Spurs and Villa – the latter of which was controversial due to several refereeing decisions at Villa Park – Newcastle are targeting a third consecutive victory on their travels as they look to improve a run of two wins from 15 on the road in Europe.

Qarabag FK Champions League form:

Qarabag FK form (all competitions):

Newcastle United Champions League form:

Newcastle United form (all competitions):

Team News

Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev has not played football of any kind since mid-November, and the goalkeeper’s injury should rule him out again on Wednesday.

Despite being sent off eight minutes after replacing star attacker Leandro Andrade at the weekend, Kady Borges should be involved in some capacity for the Horsemen against the Magpies.

Camilo Duran and Andrade have scored four and three goals respectively for Qarabag this season, accounting for 53.8% of Atlilar’s 13 strikes in the league phase, highlighting the threat of the pair ahead of Newcastle’s visit.

Howe’s team head into Wednesday with several players injured: Bruno Guimaraes (thigh), Joelinton (groin), Tino Livramento (thigh), Fabian Schar (ankle) and Emil Krafth (knee) are sidelined, while Sven Botman (back), Lewis Miley (thigh) and Yoane Wissa (knock) will be evaluated.

Only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe (13 goals), Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane (eight) and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (seven) have scored more than Anthony Gordon’s six in this season’s Champions League, and the forward – whose two assists place him joint-second for overall goal contributions – aims to be decisive for the away side.

Harvey Barnes has also been influential for the Toon Army this term, scoring five and setting up one, underlining his importance to the English side on the continent.

With Gordon and Barnes the only Newcastle players to score more than once in Europe, accounting for 64.7% of the Magpies’ 17 goals, Howe’s men will lean on both for decisive execution against Gurbanov’s team.

Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:

Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Bicalho, Jankovic; Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir; Duran

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:

Pope; Trippier, Thiaw, Burn, Hall; Ramsey, Tonali; Elanga, Willock, Gordon; Woltemade

We say: Qarabag FK 2-2 Newcastle United

Qarabag have scored two goals or more on home soil in Europe and will fancy their chances of exploiting a Newcastle side that have failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive matches across all competitions.

However, the Magpies possess enough attacking quality to match their hosts’ free-scoring output, potentially leading to a thrilling stalemate in Baku.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.